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A Brazil runoff poll released on Monday, 19 October, puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva almost level ahead of the presidential vote on 25 October.
The Nexus/BTG Pactual survey gives Bolsonaro 50.3% of valid voting intentions and Lula 49.7%, according to CNN Brasil’s report. The 0.6-point gap falls within the survey’s two-percentage-point margin of error.
What the Brazil runoff poll shows
Nexus interviewed 2,002 people by telephone between 16 and 18 October. Commissioned by BTG Pactual, the survey has a 95% confidence level and is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under BR-04499/2026.
The valid-vote figures exclude blank and invalid ballots. They describe support at the time of the interviews, rather than a confirmed election outcome. With such a small difference between the candidates, the poll does not establish a clear leader.
Two candidates head towards the deciding vote
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, faces the incumbent Lula in the second round. Neither secured an outright majority in the first round.
The candidates met for their first televised debate on Sunday, 18 October. The Associated Press reported a confrontational exchange in the final stretch of the campaign.
Polling is a snapshot, not the result
Campaign events and participation can still affect the outcome. Readers should distinguish estimates of voting intention from the official count after ballots are cast.
Brazil’s voters return to the polls on Sunday, 25 October. Until then, the latest Nexus/BTG figures indicate a closely contested race.
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